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How we got Trump right
My firm, J.L. Partners, had the most accurate election forecast of 2024. Here's how we did it
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James Johnson
What has cut through during the campaign?
We asked voters in swing states what they had noticed in the news each week of the campaign. Here's what they said.
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James Johnson
What does the Selzer poll tell us?
There are reasons to be sceptical about the individual finding, but the Selzer poll tells us we are headed to an epic battle for turnout
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James Johnson

October 2024

"Women problems".
A black voter told me that he had a problem with Kamala Harris because of "women problems". Men's view of Harris could block her route to the…
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James Johnson
This is now a Lean Trump race
Our latest model update shows a 62% chance of a Trump victory. Here's why.
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James Johnson
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Election Essentials, October 9th: The oil price time-bomb that could change the election
Plus: landfall, ads impact, Ozempic=Lepanto, Nevada facts, what is consuming voters' attention, jobs, lame strike, sugar prices
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James Johnson
Election Essentials, October 2nd: Plague of the non-answers
Plus: impact of Harris ads, how Hurricane counties voted, World War Three, the debate that didn't matter, Biden's doom tour, chaos theory.
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James Johnson

September 2024

Election Essentials, September 23rd: The pets turn on Trump
Plus: what's changing people's minds this week, Fed cut reactions, non-endorsements, nothing noticed, SALT, border crisis in the north, towards a…
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James Johnson
Election Essentials, September 17th: the Harris debate bounce is on
Plus: new polls, feel-good factors, cats and dogs, Swifties, steel, assassination attempts, interest rates, and a potential government shutdown
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James Johnson
Election Essentials, September 9th: Which Trump will we get on Tuesday?
Plus: What changed people's minds this week, immigration spike, Putin, Musk, capital gains, trials, election map data, McDonald's, models, and…
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James Johnson
Who is actually on the ballot where?
Exclusive new analysis reveals that the line-up on the ballot in the swing states only hurts one major presidential candidate
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James Johnson
Election Essentials - Labor Day: What actually changed voters' minds in the last week
Plus: battle of the mics, the candidates moderate, ballot moves, why the re-indictment doesn't matter, why older liberals are destroying polling…
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James Johnson
© 2024 James Johnson
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