What has cut through during the campaign?
We asked voters in swing states what they had noticed in the news each week of the campaign. Here's what they said.
Over the last two months, every week we have ran what we call a ‘Rapid Response Voter Panel’: a representative poll of voters in the seven main swing states on pressing issues during the campaign.
In every one of those weeks we have asked the following question: What is the biggest news story you noticed this week?
Here is how people answered, in GIF form (you may need to click through to the website to see it if you’re reading in email).
My main impressions:
The debate got noticed, big time. It was a huge ticket event, and Harris won by 49% to 43% in our snap poll. For many voters who made up their mind that week, that performance was crucial and we may look back on it as so if Harris wins the White House tomorrow night.
For four weeks in a row, hurricanes dominated. That is fully half of the campaign period. First Helene, then Milton, blocked out the news. The first was more consequential than the second, and there was opprobrium directed toward the Biden/Harris administration by swing voters for what was seen as a lacklustre response. But it only marginally helped Trump: most voters’ reactions were just of shock at the devastation, particularly in western parts of North Carolina that are still reeling today.
Prominent most weeks was “Iran” or “Israel”. I have really noticed that in the focus groups too. Foreign affairs has loomed large for undecided voters in recent focus groups I have ran in Phoenix, Pittsburgh and Detroit, and that has tended to be to the benefit of Trump. Almost every swing voter I speak to repeats back Trump’s line to me: “There were no wars under Trump”. And invariably those undecided voters would prefer Trump to handle America’s enemies rather than Harris.
Biden’s comments calling Trump supporters “garbage” were the last thing voters noticed in this campaign. The comments edged out recall of the Madison Square Garden rally. We saw the same in the focus groups - any damage for the Trump campaign from the latter was cancelled out by the former, with voters especially concerned by what they saw as a lacklustre response by Harris.
But most of all I am left with the impression that this campaign was one big nothing burger. That’s the word that comes up often, and towards the end of the campaign it almost dominates the word clouds itself. For what was promised to be a rollercoaster of a campaign, nothing much has happened. There was no October Surprise. The hurricanes were bad but were not a Katrina moment for the sitting president or his vice. War trembled, but it felt far away and never exploded into the fury that some experts expected. There was never a brand-busting moment for either candidate.
The debate aside - a clear win for Kamala Harris - this was a nothing campaign.