Election Essentials, September 9th: Which Trump will we get on Tuesday?
Plus: What changed people's minds this week, immigration spike, Putin, Musk, capital gains, trials, election map data, McDonald's, models, and dockworkers
Welcome to the sevent edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Debate week
There is only one story in town in the coming week: the first and possibly only presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Don’t believe anyone trying to talk it down. The event is hugely important, and will shift votes. Tens of million will watch. It is striking in my interviews with undecided voters: they know the date of the debate and are intending to watch. The NY Times/Siena poll that dominated headlines today (it showed a 2-point lead for Trump) also found a surprising amount of elasticity in voter attitudes towards the two main candidates.
The significance should be clear enough from the last debate in June which felled Biden’s candidacy, but the first debate in 2020 was key too, reminding voters’ of the worst parts of Trump’s nature.
Trump faces the same problem on Tuesday night in Philadelphia. If he stays structured and on message, feisty but polite, then he wins by default. If he snaps, heckles or demeans Harris, then he will turn voters off. He is helped by the microphone muting rule that will be in place.
This fact comes through in J.L. Partners’ weekly data on what changed voters’ minds in the last week. Of people who take a more positive view of Trump, the most reason given is that they feel he has mellowed and they like it. Three quotes:
"He has cut out some of his offensive tone" (Female, 68, 'Nursing professor', Pennsylvania, Republican, Donald Trump 2020)
"Trump isn't really all out at this turn in the election." (Male, 43, 'Skilled laborer', Nevada, Independent, Did not vote 2020)
"He seems to be becoming a kinder person who owns his mistakes" (Female, 30, 'Freelance Writer', Pennsylvania, Independent, Joe Biden 2020)
If Trump keeps the act up, he will do well out of Tuesday even if snap polls after show it to be a draw.
Other things clear from the data are that Harris is still benefiting from a positive reception and a sense she is “for the people”. Voters do not think she is extreme, but do worry about her flip-flopping and lack of media appearances. Harris will need to differentiate herself clearly in the debate and get people believing she has the spine to lead and beliefs she will follow.
Here is the full breakdown of the data: interestingly, not one person mentioned the endorsement of Kamala Harris by Liz and Dick Cheney as a reason for changing their minds.
Graph of the week
This graph from the WSJ on net immigration over the last 25 years. Nine million people came to the country since 2020, larger than the total amount in the decade prior. Only 30% of those people were authorised immigrants. Could this be a chart we all pay a lot more attention to after November 5th?
Developments of the week
A lot happened this week. A brief précis:
Financial stocks fell sharply, and Nvidia lost the most value in a week of any company ever. The slide was prompted by poor factory data first and then a mixed bag of uncertain jobs data on Friday. It still remains to be seen if we will get a 0.25 or a 0.5 per cent cut in interest rates on September 18th, though analysts see the former as more likely.
Putin *said* he backed Kamala Harris, while the Justice Department said Russia was trying to elect Trump (they also said Iran wants Harris)
The sentencing of Donald Trump for his hush money crime was delayed to late November. That is a major win for the former president and takes a big uncertain event out of the calendar
But the timeline for the federal election interference case was outlined: though there will not be a trial before the election, there will be publication of information underpinning the prosecution’s case. The deadline is September 26th.
One legal development that doesn't matter so much anymore: Hunter Biden pled guilty on tax charges and now moves to sentencing.
Policies of the week
Who said this race was light on policy?
Harris moderated further, revising her capital gains tax rise to 33% rather than Biden’s 44.6% plan. She also reversed course on a previous pledge to ban plastic straws.
Trump meanwhile unveiled a set of policies at the Economic Club of New York. He said he would appoint Elon Musk to an efficiency commission, set a 15% corporate tax rate for companies that produce only in America, introduce a sovereign wealth fund, would rescind unspent funds under the Inflation Reduction Act, and ban mortgages for illegal immigrants.
None of these shift the dial in their own right, but there is no doubt there are two clear visions on offer at this election.
Piece of the week
A masterclass on the debate from WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan: Trump and Harris Get Set to Debate.
More and more I am getting the impression this will be a path election, not a person election.
Once you chose John F. Kennedy—young, bright, vigorous—and he led you down a path. You chose Ronald Reagan, and he led you down a path. You picked the person and that person said, “This way” and cut the path through the forest.
I’m feeling that a lot of people this year will be choosing the path, not the person. They’ll put up with the person, but it’s the path they want. And I’m not sure people want to go down the Blue Path any deeper than they already have.
Website of the week
VoteHub is an unrivalled map of the entire country, shaded by the results in the 2020 and 2016 elections with breakdowns for every precinct. It’s an incredible resource.
Statistic of the week (1)
1 in 8 Americans have worked at McDonald’s. It’s true, and they even have an alumni page.
Statistic of the week (2)
Kamala Harris had $404m in the bank at the end of August compared to $295m for Donald Trump. Trump might have the momentum this week, but Harris still has the money advantage - by quite some margin.
In case you missed it
We released our presidential forecast model this week with the Daily Mail. It is currently showing a 50.5% chance of a Trump win, with the central outcome being a Trump victory of 287-251 in the Electoral College by his carrying of Nevada and Pennsylvania. The model will be updated regularly, and the first place it will be is here.
Looking ahead
Last week I told you all that voting would start in the election this week. That was true, until North Carolina’s mail-in ballots were cancelled due to a successful challenge by RFK Jr to take himself off. It looks like they won’t now land until the week after next. So hold off on the election for a bit.
Two other things to watch. It doesn’t get much coverage, but talks on a major dockworkers strike are ongoing. If it goes ahead on October 1st, then we could be in for huge economic disruption, affecting shipping and all sorts, a month before the election.
And a decision on Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of US Steel is imminent. Biden hinted heavily this week he would block it. It will capture the news if he does, and though both Trump and Harris oppose the deal, it could unleash chaos: US Steel has threatened to close sites and its Pittsburgh HQ in Pennsylvania if the deal doesn’t go ahead. With Pittsburgh being in the heart of the most important swing state in the country, the discourse around that could well impact the election.
See you next week: I’m off to Georgia to talk to swing voters in the aftermath of the debate, and we will have a debate snap poll running this week too with the Daily Mail.