Who is actually on the ballot where?
Exclusive new analysis reveals that the line-up on the ballot in the swing states only hurts one major presidential candidate
As we edge towards voting in the presidential election getting underway, the final state of the ballots is firming up.
Unlike 2020, an election in which few third party candidates stood, numerous are standing this time. And unlike both 2016 and 2020, their placement on various state ballots is scattered. The main players are:
Jill Stein: some places standing as a Green, in other states as an independent, the left-leaning candidate stood in 2016 and was seen to be instrumental in costing Hillary Clinton a number of states
Cornel West: a self-declared socialist, Cornel West is a left-wing activist, theologian and public intellectual
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: initially a Democrat, then an independent candidate, he has now endorsed Trump. But because of his late exit from the race, he is still set to appear on numerous ballots, and the Kennedy name itself will still have something of a draw
Chase Oliver: the official candidate of the Libertarian Party
Despite none of them being expected to bring in any more than 1-3% of the vote, where they stand matters because each third party candidate takes support from one of Trump or Harris.
Before getting into the ramifications, where are they currently set to stand?
Wisconsin:
ON: RFK Jr, Stein, West, Oliver
Georgia:
ON: Stein, West, Oliver
OFF: RFK Jr
North Carolina:
ON: Stein, West, Oliver
OFF: RFK Jr
Nevada:
ON: Oliver
OFF: Stein, West, RFK Jr
Michigan:
ON: West, Stein, Oliver, RFK Jr
Pennsylvania:
ON: Stein, Oliver
OFF: RFK Jr, West
Arizona:
ON: Stein, Oliver
OFF: RFK Jr, West
It is worth saying some of these are still up in the air (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in particular) due to legal challenges. This page will be edited to keep up to date with any changes.
EDIT 09/09: RFK Jr is back ON the Michigan ballot (updated above)
So what does this mean? By asking in our polling how people would vote in a head-to-head against Harris and Trump, after asking the full ballot, we have worked out who takes votes from who.
That analysis by J.L. Partners has found that West, Oliver, and Stein all take more votes from Harris than they do from Trump. RFK Jr is the only candidate who takes away more from the former president. Here are the charts.
What, then, are the net effects in each of the swing states?
Wisconsin: Slightly worse for Harris
Georgia: Significantly worse for Harris
North Carolina: Significantly worse for Harris
Nevada: No impact in either direction
Michigan: Slightly worse for Harris
Pennsylvania: Slightly worse for Harris
Arizona: Slightly worse for Harris
In no swing state does the line-up on the ballot hurt Trump more than it hurts Harris.
These numbers are why our model, released in the The Daily Mail this week, favors Trump: it accounts for these voter flows and who is on each ballot in each state.
It is Trump who benefits from third party candidates in 2024, not his Democratic opponent.