What does the Selzer poll tell us?
There are reasons to be sceptical about the individual finding, but the Selzer poll tells us we are headed to an epic battle for turnout
First things first: our model for Iowa remains at a 96.3% chance of a Trump victory in the Hawkeye State.
That sums up our view of Selzer, which showed a 3 point lead for Harris on the weekend: it goes into the model alongside all the other polls and is treated as such.
We do not believe any one poll should transform a view of the race. Selzer is not doing anything magically different from anyone else: there is no reason to believe she is picking up something no one else in the country is, and that is why the model treats her poll in the way it does.
Selzer, and other polls, have had one impact: moving Michigan very narrowly back into Harris’ camp in our model. That means that our central estimate is now a narrow Trump win in the Electoral College with Harris on 241 Electoral Votes and Trump on 297.
There are also some reasons to be hesitant on Selzer and why we are – overall – in the sceptical bucket on the poll:
It is not weighted to party registration, a problem in a state which has got much higher Republican affiliation figures and especially so since 2020
It still carries with it a large margin of error at the 95% confidence interval of +/- 6.6 points
Non-response bias might currently favor older liberal women; from our experience this is (statistically) the group most likely to give pollsters their time on the phone
Iowa might be an outlier state in this election in any case, with special circumstances related to its 6-week abortion ban enacted this summer
Where Selzer is helpful is as a warning sign. Not for what it says about Iowa or other states, but for the fact that it is perfectly plausible – if unlikely - that Selzer is picking up a pattern that could have a large bearing: a stellar performance – in vote and in turnout - of Harris amongst women.
Our final national poll pointed to dangers for Trump. He still has a lower favorability rating than Harris. And while Trump dominates in rural areas with 70% of the vote, Harris has retained an edge in the suburbs. She leads Trump with suburban voters by 2 points, 48% to 46%. The suburbs often – but not always – lead to election victory, and Trump has not been able to regain the advantage he had over Biden earlier in the race with suburban voters. We also found Harris leading Donald Trump by 14 points with women.
It is this ‘hidden Harris voter’ that Selzer gives emphasis to in her poll. The Harris lead in the Hawkeye State is powered by women, where Harris leads 56 to 36 percent, and by a huge 63 to 28 points amongst women over 65.
We know that women have become more likely to back Democrats since the Dobbs ruling in 2022, and our Daily Mail poll of Pennsylvania found the biggest hesitation about voting Trump amongst undecided voters was ‘Project 2025’ and what this would mean for women’s rights.
But there are other voter groups in this election too, and Trump has a powerbase in rural, white men. Trump has excited his base in the closing days. Whereas in our last poll his voters lagged Harris’ in terms of enthusiasm, 74% of Trump voters now say they are very enthusiastic to vote for Trump, compared to 67% of Harris voters who say the same of voting for her.
While Harris leads with women, that is much less than the amount Trump leads with men: a huge 22 points. Men have swung to Trump more since 2020 than women have moved to Harris.
There are signs in the early vote that Trump is romping home in rural counties – particularly in Georgia. Of the state’s 159 counties, the top 23 for early voter and absentee returns were all won by Trump four years ago. On the flipside, turnout in the Detroit metro area in Michigan, and suburban counties in North Carolina also looks exceptional.
This race could come down to a battle for turnout, between rural white men and suburban white women. If Trump gets out more of the former, he wins. If Harris mobilizes the latter, she takes the crown.
Harris’ job is complicated by what has happened with nonwhite voters since 2020. Though Harris still leads decisively, Trump has made inroads with Hispanics and Black voters, set to win 45% and 15% of them respectively.
I am constantly stunned by how many Trump-backing non-white voters I meet when conducting focus groups. In a focus group in Detroit this week, the Black and Asian voters were backing Trump, the white women backing Harris. In crucial states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, that could complicate things for Harris even if she manages to mobilize the gender gap to her advantage.
So all things considered, we do not think this risk majorly shakes things up, as per our model. But it does present a race of turnout on the day. If Harris can outpace Trump’s turnout amongst men, Harris could outperform her polls and win the Midwest – and with it, the presidency.