Election Essentials - Labor Day: What actually changed voters' minds in the last week
Plus: battle of the mics, the candidates moderate, ballot moves, why the re-indictment doesn't matter, why older liberals are destroying polling, Roosevelt 1920, and voting begins
Welcome to the sixth edition of Election Essentials this Labor Day. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Poll of the week
In the maelstrom of the news cycle, it can be hard to work out what is actually shifting minds week to week. From now until the election, we will be asking voters direct to tell us what has changed their minds.
Here’s how it looks for the last week.
Trump got the most positive momentum due to RFK Jr’s endorsement the week before, continued concerns about migration, and his new IVF policy. There is also a growing perception that Harris is not visible enough on the campaign trail; that view has now gone beyond just the media and into the wider electorate.
On the Harris side of the ledger, running mate pick Tim Walz pushed some people to her, as well as concerns about Project 2025 (Trump has distanced himself from it, but voters still bring it up all the time). Doing the bulk of the work, though, is frustration with negative tactics and attacks from Donald Trump, including continued fallout from his comments doubting Harris’ racial identity in front of the National Association of Black Journalists a few weeks ago.
The answers give a flavor of what is driving people where. It differs from what simply creates a negative view of a candidate. Elsewhere in the poll, for example, we saw voters express their anger about the Trump campaign’s altercation at Arlington Cemetery. But not one person said it changed how they would vote come November.
The most important development this week
Donald Trump appears to have won the battle of the mics, resisting the Harris campaign’s attempts to turn them on when the other isn’t speaking at the debate on September 10th. That’s a huge win for Trump: having the microphones on all the time would have meant Trump would be unrestrained, reminding voters of the aspects about him they dislike the most. I wrote about that before the June debate, when the Biden team asked for the mics-off rule in the first place.
On top of asking for the debate that ended their boss’ career, this ask was an incredible act of stupidity from the Biden team. Harris will be competitive in the debate, but she is disadvantaged by that legacy error.
Story of the week
Both candidates tried to moderate this week. Trump suggested on TruthSocial he would back a Florida ballot measure pushing for the legalization of cannabis in the state. He also announced that the government or insurance companies would have to fund IVF. One announcement went too far: on Thursday he suggested his support for a Florida amendment protecting the right to abortion, but on Friday he reversed it under pressure.
At her televised CNN interview on Thursday Harris tacked right. She stuck by her reversal on fracking, now opposing a ban. And she said she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet. She also refused to be drawn on Trump’s comments about her race. She did well in the interview considering she made it through with no errors. But how long can she survive the low level of scrutiny she is inviting? I suspect not for much longer: as above, it is already cutting through with voters.
Statistic of the week
Only 1 in 10 think the presidential candidate they are backing will lose in their home state. Considering that 43 of the 50 states are assumed to go firmly in one direction, that is quite something.
I think it comes from an awareness problem (many voters think the election is one national vote rather than through an Electoral College) and an enthusiasm issue (loyal backers of their party really want them to win).
Underplayed story of the week
Who will appear on each ballot was almost finalised this week. Green Party candidate (and in some states Independent) Jill Stein got onto Georgia and the Wisconsin ballots, Independent Cornel West made it onto Michigan and Georgia, and RFK Jr found himself still on the Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin ballots despite his withdrawal from the race. The balance of who will be on which ballot will make a lot of difference come November, as West and Stein take votes from Harris more than they do Trump. I’ll have a full piece on what each swing state’s ballot means up soon.
Overplayed story of the week
Donald Trump was re-indicted in the federal election interference case this week, re-issued after the Supreme Court ruling last month which stipulated that Trump was immune for duties undertaken in his office of President. The re-indictment is bullish and Special Counsel Jack Smith clearly thinks he still has a case. But it doesn’t sound strong: the Enron ruling which annulled multiple convictions for Jan 6 rioters still looms over the case, and the indictment still includes pressuring Mike Pence which the Court said Trump had “presumptive immunity” on. Whatever happens, it won’t go to trial this side of the election.
Piece of the week
Ryan Girdusky has written a brilliant piece on The American Conservative on how many polls are sampling the wrong kinds of over-65s, resulting in better results for Kamala Harris.
In his words: “Older white liberals’ response bias created the illusion that there was a silent Trump voter in the last two presidential elections, and they’re doing it again.”
Fact of the week
In between travelling the swing states (and finally watching Game of Thrones) I’ve been working my way through Ken Burns’ documentary on the Roosevelts. This is a fact I did not know: in 1919, Theodore Roosevelt (president 1901-1909) was the hot favorite for the Republican presidential nominee in 1920. It would have been the most incredible comeback. Unfortunately, he died that year. If he had survived, only 8 years would have separated his presidency and that of his cousin’s, Franklin.
Looking ahead
The race is entering its final two months: now things really heat up. It is a frenetic week of campaigning for our two main candidates.
And voting actually starts this week. On Friday, the first mail-in ballots start getting sent out in North Carolina. That’s right: the election is underway.
Here’s the ballots timeline after that, courtesy of @umichvoter on X.
