A tale of two Trumps: why Trump reversed course on abortion
Exclusive polling: Yesterday Trump backtracked on supporting the Florida abortion measure; new data tells us why.
It was a fast reverse ferret, but one nonetheless.
On Thursday Trump suggested he would vote for the abortion amendment on the ballot in his home state of Florida. The measure, one of ten across the country, would seek to enshrine a protection against abortion in the state constitution. In Florida that means annulling the six-week abortion ban signed into law by Governor Ron DeSantis last year.
Trump told NBC News: “I think the six weeks is too short. It has to be more time. I told them that I want more weeks… I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks”.
On Friday, after an outpouring of criticism from conservative and pro-life voices, Trump said he would be voting against the amendment.
New data, exclusive to The Next America, reveals why.
On Friday morning, a point in time between Trump’s two positions, J.L. Partners asked a representative likely voters panel how they felt about Trump’s initial comments on Thursday. Here’s how the responses break out:
Though it did elicit positive responses from one in five Independents and one in ten Democrats, that is outweighed by the 28% of Republicans who viewed the issue negatively. Because of the smaller population size of Independents, that means more damage was done by taking the position.
Clearly Democrats, 83% of whom took a negative view, are going to be hard for Trump to prise away. Many of these, and the 63% of Independents who had a negative sentiment, think there should be no involvement from the state in women’s decisions on abortion, or simply don’t trust Trump on abortion after his Supreme Court appointments. In short: they’re not winnable.
And, on a separate question about what has changed people’s minds in the last few weeks, abortion was cited only as a reason not to vote against Trump, rather than as a reason to come towards him.
Here is a sample of some of those negative comments from Republicans:
"He doesn't get a vote in Florida's lawmaking. He has never been in favor of top-down abortion bans, and it's one of the things I disagree with him on." (Female, 30, 'Homemaker', Louisiana, Republican, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump now)
"They need to vote against all abortions" (Female, 33, 'Student', Indiana, Republican, Did not vote 2020, Someone else now)
"I am against abortion." (Female, 62, 'Retired', South Carolina, Republican, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump now)
"He shouldn't vote against it, it's more than enough time" (Male, 21, 'I am in school currently.', Oregon, Republican, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump now)
"He should ban it completely" (Female, 36, 'Disability', Alabama, Unsure, Did not vote 2020, Donald Trump now)
"As a real Catholic, unlike some politicians, I support right to life." (Male, 75, 'Retired', Alabama, Independent, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump now)
And here is a sample of a mix of the comments from Independents and Democrats:
"Nothing, he got rid Roe" (Male, 41, 'Retired Electrician', California, Democrat, Joe Biden 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"I think that's actually good because most people don't know they're pregnant at six weeks." (Female, 38, 'Physician assistant', Minnesota, Democrat, Joe Biden 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"I dont agree with any abortion ban what so ever" (Female, 34, 'Freelancer gig', Oregon, Independent, Did not vote 2020, Donald Trump now)
"He knows nothing about women's rights and how to protect them." (Female, 31, 'Security guard', Virginia, Independent, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Looks like he is flip flopping to pander for more votes" (Male, 34, 'Human Resources', Nebraska, Independent, Donald Trump 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Trump is pandering, he said he was glad that the Supreme Court overturned Roe VS. Wade and now he is trying to back pedal" (Female, 60, 'Caregiver', Michigan, Independent, Joe Biden 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"I don't think abortion is right, but I also don't like the government telling people what they can and cannot do." (Male, 28, 'Accountant', Ohio, Independent, Donald Trump 2020, Dont know now)
"Pandering to crowd" (Female, 46, 'Cashier', Florida, Democrat, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"I think he has no business putting rights on a woman's body" (Female, 40, 'Manufacturing operator', New York, Democrat, Joe Biden 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"He's grasping at straws. He's a rapist and pedophile who has forced many women to get abortions" (Female, 61, 'Business services', Ohio, Democrat, Joe Biden 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"He's doing it to try to appease voters. I don't believe him" (Female, 34, 'Research administration', New York, Democrat, Joe Biden 2020, Kamala Harris now)
The political calculation is not straightforward. Trump does face a challenge on abortion, with many voters ranking it highly as an issue at the forthcoming election. There is an argument that Trump should have stuck by his guns on Thursday, that he can anger his base as they have nowhere else to go. There is no other prominent pro-life candidate on the ballot.
But people can decide not to vote at all. This is a serious situation for many, and a matter of religious conscience. It’s not as easy for them as just voting for Trump regardless of his position. An example is Air Force veteran, Francis. I met him in Erie County, Pennsylvania, in a basement apartment bare of decoration bar the Cross. Despite disliking Trump’s personality, he was leaning Trump purely because of what he felt was his pro-life position on abortion. He was the kind of voter who would not have voted at all if he felt Trump was not protecting life. In a razor-edge state like PA, that matters.
Trump does need to moderate on abortion, and his policy to release more funding for IVF announced Thursday or his commitment to not bring in a federal abortion ban are good examples of this. But suggesting he would vote for the Florida amendment was a step too far, and Trump was probably set to lose more votes than gain them from the comments.
The whole saga shows how tricky the issue is for Trump. If under fire on it by Harris in the debate on September 10th, he could buckle.
The debate aside, perhaps the best course on abortion for Trump is to not say anything at all. One thing is clear: the more Trump talks about the issue in this contest, the worse it is for him.