Why RFK Jr dropping out is bigger than anything that happened at the DNC

Don't listen to those who say the difference is negligible; RFK Jr has acted as a 'gateway drug' for Biden 2020 voters to back Trump

There is no doubt that Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s former voters are a varied bunch. I ran a focus group with some of them in the suburbs of Detroit back in February, and yesterday I called a few of them to see how they were feeling about their vote now that RFK Jr has dropped out.

Terry was clear: “If Harris becomes president I would more than likely move out of the US”. For her, Kamala Harris is a “serial politician” and “ditsy”. She is a “double thumbs up” for Donald Trump and will now be voting for him.

Shannon was equally direct, in the other direction. “I hate Trump”. She is “certain” to vote for Kamala Harris to beat Donald Trump.

But despite the polarization of my RFK Jr penpals, the polling numbers tell a different story. They tell us that RFK Jr dropping out is going to be a huge boon for the Trump campaign.

Take this chart, from our most recent J.L. Partners/Daily Mail polling. It shows where RFK Jr voters tell us they would lean if he is not in the ballot in their state.

By a margin of two to one, RFK Jr voters back Donald Trump (51%) over Kamala Harris (26%). One in four don’t know (realistically a large portion of these won’t vote). That is half of the 5% of likely voters who backed RFK Jr saying they lean Trump.

That kind of margin - even if it only partly comes to pass - is a big win for Trump, especially in tight states like Pennsylvania and Georgia where every vote makes a difference.

What gets even more interesting is when we break it down further. Some have pointed out that there are a big chunk of Biden 2020 voters that RFK Jr was winning, and that will help Harris. They are half right: RFK Jr voters are made up of a relatively even numbers of Biden 2020 and Trump 2020 supporters (34% and 36% apiece). The problem for Democrats is that a number of those Biden 2020 voters are not moving to Harris.

This chart shows Biden 2020 voters who moved to RFK Jr (making up around a third of RFK’s support). Of those, only half are saying they will now move to Harris. One in four (26%) say they are going to Trump.

For a polarized nation, that is a very high number of switchers.

A similar effect is happening amongst those who did not vote in 2020, but have been excited by RFK Jr’s campaign. Making up around a quarter of his support, these non-voters now also break for Trump (43%) instead of Harris (26%).

RFK Jr’s candidacy has acted as a gateway drug for non-voters and Biden 2020 voters to back Donald Trump. Prised away from apathy or Biden by RFK’s campaign, they are now moving to a Republican candidate - a move they were not likely to make beforehand.

That is before even RFK Jr’s highly visible endorsement of Trump yesterday. The Harris campaign does not seem eager to win those voters over either. The DNC put out a statement yesterday saying RFK Jr was a “failed fringe candidate” and his departure was “good riddance”.

We will now see how the polls change. But on this data I think we can be confident that RFK Jr’s decision is going to be more impactful than anything we saw in Chicago this week, even Kamala Harris’ successful and strident speech.

RFK Jr just made this race - already bizarre and erratic - even more unpredictable.