Launching The Next America
I'll be sharing my insights from cutting-edge research and polling on what the 2024 election - and the America after it - will look like.
1. This is what it looks like when you send a Brit to Iowa in January.
On the day it was -25 degrees. So cold that one of the biggest translation problems between the UK and the USA ceased to exist, as Celsius and Fahrenheit were basically showing the same temperature. That did not stop another cultural gap from opening up: being told by a YouTube commentator that I looked like Ralphie from A Christmas Story. I had to Google that one.
I was in Iowa to talk to voters in the run-up to the caucuses that Trump went on to win with a majority of the vote. It was clear before what would happen. Iowan Republicans put aside their reservations about Trump and backed him because he is “one of them”, a quintessential American “fighter” against what they see as unfair adversity: namely the raft of indictments he was served in 2022.
Other candidates paled into the chilly background, too “false”, too much like regular politicians.
By listening and learning from on the ground, it was clear: it was never going to be anyone but Trump.
2. How I went from Downing Street to D.C.
I’m James Johnson, and between 2017 and 2019 I was the Chief Pollster to the British Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street. I ran the then-PM Theresa May’s polling operation, conducting focus groups, analysing the numbers, and acting as the main conduit between the public and the Prime Minister.
I’ve always loved getting face-to-face with voters, whether in Des Moines, Iowa or Darlington, England. Just like at those caucuses, it is where you see statistical trends made real. And it is where, by picking up a zeitgeist, a hidden mood, you can see where the statistics will head next.
So when I left Number 10 in 2019 I set up my own polling firm, J.L. Partners, with my co-founder Dr Tom Lubbock. And after building a highly successful business in the UK, in 2023 I moved to the U.S. to set up Johnson and Lubbock USA LLC with Tom, geared towards the American market.
We have had a good start: we got the most accurate result in the 2022 mid-terms in the Ohio Senate race, I speak regularly at conferences and retreats, and our polling has been shared by President Biden and President Trump.
3. Decoding the 2024 Election and what comes next.
Come November, we are set for a Biden-Trump rematch. It promises to be the most consequential - and likely one of the closest - elections in American history.
And I’m going native. For the next six months I will be throwing myself into every swing state, every key voter group, every live and salient debate, to try to tell the story of this year and beyond.
The ‘beyond’ is important: what does this country look like in the first year of a Trump administration, or Biden mark two? What does the next politics after 2024 look like? Where does America turn, after the current octogenarians relinquish their grip on the country?
As I travel the country I’ll be using this Substack to share the polling J.L. Partners does, the interviews I conduct, and the insights I glean - to help you decode this pivotal election contest and the America that will come next.
4. What my posts will look like.
Each week you can expect two pieces from me.
A piece on one of the contours of the election. Whether it is a missive from one of my journeys across the country, or an analysis piece on a poll, I hope it should give you that extra dose of insight that you might not get from CNN or the Wall Street Journal.
Election Essentials. I’ll write you a note in a regular format on the key points from the last week of the campaign. It’ll include a poll of the week, an opinion piece of the week, the campaign moment of the week, and the most overrated and underrated stories of the week. Helping you know what you need to know.
Thank you for reading!
Thank you for reading and subscribing; and do get involved with comments, thoughts, or questions. Now enjoy, and join me on my journey as I search for the Next America.
