Hold the phone on Harrismania. Here's what the numbers really show
Trump maintains a lead in the latest J.L. Partners polling, and there are four key reasons why
Today the latest J.L. Partners / DailyMail.com poll landed. The poll surveyed a sample of 1,000 national likely voters, conducted using a mixed method approach across live calls and online. It found good news for Donald Trump as he battles a growing - and in my view misplaced - sense that Kamala Harris is now the frontrunner.
The poll shows Trump with a 2-point lead over Kamala Harris, leading her by 43% to 41%. That is within the margin of error of a tie - but even accounting for that, Trump would likely win the Electoral College on these numbers.
There has certainly been a shift in the Democrats’ favor; before Biden dropped out, Trump led by 43% to 37%.
And the poll picks up on positive demographic shifts for Kamala Harris that other outfits have spotted. Harris has made significant inroads with key voter groups:
She has narrowed Trump’s lead by 7 points with Independents
She has built on Biden’s support with Democrats by 6 points
She is doing better with women than Biden ever did, now leading Trump by 6 points amongst female voters
She is up double-digits with Black voters
She has gone up by 11 points with 18-29 year olds compared to Biden
So why is the poll not better news for Harris? How is Trump still ahead after a torrid two weeks of press coverage?
There are four reasons.
1. Kamala Harris’ support is strong, but limited to traditional Democratic strongholds
As above, Harris storms it with black voters and younger people. But with white voters the picture has barely changed since Biden dropped out of the race. In July, Trump led by 47% to Biden’s 33% with whites. He now leads Harris by 48% to 35%. The same is evident with Hispanics. Biden led with Hispanics back in March; Trump retains a 3 point lead over Harris with this group.
Age is a tell too. It is only amongst the 18-29 year old age group that Harris has seen a statistically significant increase since Biden dropped out of the race. The picture is frozen amongst 30-49 year olds (tied), 50-64 year olds (Trump +16), and over-65s (tied).
Harris’ favorability numbers give an indication why: though she has a +14 net favorability rating with 18-29 year olds, she has a net -5 rating with those over the age of 50.
She is doing a good job of rallying the Democratic base - and the voters you might be most likely to see on TikTok or Instagram. But she is not improving on Biden’s position in other fundamental groups in the American electorate.
2. The Trump army is still hugely energized
Harris’s supporters have definitely become more energized than Biden’s were. But Trump’s base is still highly motivated. The proportion of Republicans who have a “very favorable” view of Donald Trump is 68%. The proportion of Democrats who say the same of Kamala Harris is 61%. Not a huge gap, and a damn sight smaller than it was under Joe Biden, but still an advantage in the enthusiasm stakes.
3. Trump holds the attributes trifecta
Trump has the holy trinity of key attributes. He leads on “strong” (by a margin of 7 points), “gets things done” (by 8 points) and the most important issues in American politics: the economy (ahead by 10 points), and border security (ahead by 21 points).
Again, he isn’t invincible - Harris leads on the third-most important issue, abortion, by a margin of 18 points, as well as on ‘shares my values’, ‘competent’ and ‘has a good track record’. But being behind on all three of those attributes puts a lid on a politician’s vote in the 2020s. Harris will need to wrestle one or two back to be more competitive.
4. Isn’t she just a bit too liberal?
Not my words, but the concern of independents. Trump currently leads amongst independents by 2 points. That is a lot better for the Democrats than after the debate, when Trump led by 9 points. But it is a voter group that candidates often need to win to forge a path to the White House (though not always - Romney won them in 2012).
We asked independents what is holding them back from voting Harris. Their biggest hesitation: “liberal”. Harris will need to either address this hesitation or make it matter less to these voters in the middle. Choosing Tim Walz as VP might not have been the best means to do that.
Other pollsters are available: not everyone is showing a Trump lead. But we are confident in our figures (our methodology got the midterms spot on), and we are not alone. Three other outfits had Trump vote leads over the last few days.
CNBC, Trump 48% Harris 46%
Rasmussen, Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Fox News, Trump 50%, Harris 49%
Ignore the Harrismania and the most excited social media takes. This is going to be a very close election and every vote will matter.