Election Essentials, September 23rd: The pets turn on Trump
Plus: what's changing people's minds this week, Fed cut reactions, non-endorsements, nothing noticed, SALT, border crisis in the north, towards a funding deal, and all eyes on Nebraska
Welcome to the ninth edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Vote-changers of the week
The pets are eating Trump’s vote. The ongoing Haitian pet story, brought up by Trump nearly two weeks ago in the presidential debate, is still hurting his chances. That’s according to our weekly poll that asks people in swing states what has changed voters’ minds.
Take some of these quotes when people were asked what made them more negative about Trump in the past week:
"He's talking about people eating cats and dogs" (Female, 41, 'Receptionist', Arizona, Independent, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Because he is talking crazy now with his accusations" (Female, 40, 'Ticket taker Usher', Pennsylvania, Democrat, Donald Trump 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Every time he talks he seems crazy and unhinged" (Female, 34, 'Homemaker', Georgia, Independent, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Because he just sounds like a lunatic" (Male, 54, 'Unemployed', Michigan, Independent, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
Harris, meanwhile, continues to have more people saying they feel more positive about her than negative. Persistent concerns about Project 2025 and her attack ads are doing a lot of work, but people also spoke of her appearing “strong” and “positive”.
I wonder, though, if Harris’ lack of clear answers - and a reputation for changing her mind - is now causing her problems. Take these quotes:
"Harris changes values on too many things without explanation" (Female, 61, 'Vice president', Nevada, Independent, Joe Biden 2020, Donald Trump now)
"The lack of details provided in plans by Harris." (Male, 74, 'Retired', North Carolina, Independent, Joe Biden 2020, Dont know now)
"Harris has not articulated how she plans to help the nation on the border, economically and abroad" (Male, 54, 'Software development', Georgia, Republican, Did not vote 2020, Donald Trump now)
After interviews with Harris this week, “I was a middle class kid” started trending on social media. She has used the line when asked about specifics on her plans and it is now getting pretty heavily mocked.
Economic moment of the week
Not mentioned by the voters unprompted, but the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 50 points on Wednesday afternoon. After a day of uncertainty, stocks boomed - and maintained their growth on Friday.
The effects will not be instant, but the timing is good for Harris. In six weeks from now, voters might feel marginally better off. They are unlikely to change their views on the economy - which they think was better under Trump - but a feel-good factor, even if marginal, has never hurt a candidate.
We asked voters in swing states to sum up their reaction to the cut, and it is safe to say they are very content - and nor are Trump’s complaints cutting through.
Non-endorsement of the week
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters decided not to endorse a candidate for the first time since 1996. An internal poll released by the union found 59.6% of its members want Trump to be the next president, compared to just 34% for Harris.
Not to state the blindingly obvious, but this is a win for Trump — and shows he remains appealing to blue-collar workers, of particular use in the heavily unionized Rust Belt.
Story of the week
This week we asked voters what the biggest story is they heard this week. It might seem like an epoch ago now, but the answer was clear: the second botched assassination attempt on Trump at his Palm Beach golf course last Sunday.
What is striking though, is just how little political oxygen the attempt has received since. It’s partly because it was not on camera, but there is also a sense the country is becoming inured to the violence that stalks the former president.
Also striking: how many people said they noticed “nothing” in the last week. It might feel like a fast-moving election season, but not that many things are making a difference on the regular.
Policy of the week
Trump stated he would reverse his 2017 decision, as part of his tax cuts package, to cap the State and Local Tax deduction (SALT). The measure is deeply unpopular with affluent voters in parts of New York and California. I spent the weekend on Long Island and it is fair to say it is a galvanizing issue, and Trump’s position has cut through.
That might not mean a lot for the Electoral College in these safe Blue states, but it could shore up Republicans in the House in those critical seats in NY and CA they gained in 2022.
Bunkum comparison of the week
Early voting opened in Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota this weekend. Do not listen to some of the takes comparing 2024 early voting statistics to 2020 ones - usually to suggest one side is outperforming its vote totals from the previous election. The comparison is moot: early voting in 2020 was a damp squib because so many decided to vote by mail instead due to the pandemic.
Statistic of the week
There have been 180,000 migrant encounters in the year to date on the northern border. Yes, that’s right, the border with Canada. The numbers are up from just 27,000 in 2021 and already exceeding 2023 numbers. Could the issue become a political one? This WSJ op-ed, where I found the numbers, seems to think so.
Looking ahead: three things to watch
What happens in Nebraska. Lawmakers are pushing again to change Nebraska’s Electoral College Vote allocation, so it becomes a winner-takes-all state rather than awarded proportionally. That currently gives Democrats a chance at an extra Vote: this would take that away, in a significant boost to Donald Trump. Let’s see if it happens. The Governor has said he will call a special session if there are the 33 votes needed to pass it on the record. So far that doesn’t look like the case but the pressure from Team Trump is growing. We should know this week.
Last call for the dockworkers. Avid readers of the blog will know I’ve taken this up as a small obsession, but this week is the last week to avert a major dockworkers strike which could significantly hinder the economy if it goes forward. Biden hinted this week he would not force workers back to the docks if they go ahead. That feel-good factor I spoke about earlier could feel wiped out if packages start to not arrive on time.
September 30 deadline looms. A deal to fund the federal government is needed this week - and we are probably looking at yet another bipartisan deal to kick the can down the road in this divided Congress. Chances of a shutdown - which never looked likely - are now very slim as the GOP leadership moves beyond a Trump-championed law against non-citizens being able to vote. Instead it looks like we will see a resolution to fund the Government until December.