Election Essentials, September 17th: the Harris debate bounce is on
Plus: new polls, feel-good factors, cats and dogs, Swifties, steel, assassination attempts, interest rates, and a potential government shutdown
Welcome to the eighth edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Moment of the week
Last week I asked which Trump will we get at the debate. Donald Trump answered clearly, with a roaming, shouty and riled performance which showed voters his worst side. Harris, though still lacking in detail, proved herself a competent and skilful debater.
One week on, that debate is now having an impact on the polls.
Our latest J.L. Partners / DailyMail.com tracker has Kamala Harris moving to a 1-point lead over Donald Trump, the first time Trump has been behind since we began tracking the election a year. Other polls are trending to Harris, and Nate Silver’s election model has the race moving back to 50-50.
The driving force is a decline for Trump amongst Hispanic voters, Independents (where Harris also leads for the first time), and 50-65 year olds. Those are key voting blocs you do not want to lose.
Our weekly voter panel, tracking what changed people’s minds, gives some insights as to why:
"Trump is a baby", said a 45-year-old woman who backed Trump in 2020 but is now voting Harris
"I have a mind change about Donald Trump because he doesn't take America serious", said a 39-year-old Independent man who went Trump in 2020 but is now voting Harris
"Same old Trump who does not change to adapt", says another defector from Trump to Harris
"The debate sealed up my vote, Trump lost his cool and was very easily baited into a tizzy.", said a 67-year-old woman from North Carolina who is now sure to vote Harris
"Watching the debate, opened my eyes to a lot of issues. Karmela sounds like she is more for the people”, said a 61-year-old woman who now does not know how she would vote after previously backing Trump
There were other reasons people changed their mind: some went to Trump over Harris’ record on the border, some because of the state of the economy and inflation, some because they felt she is a radical or a liar. A handful liked Trump’s debate performance. But the big mover was clearly the debate and Trump’s conduct throughout.
Yet again there were also multiple mentions of Project 2025 (“The 2025 act - I’m gay so any act against being gay isn’t ok”) and abortion rights, suggesting the Harris ad campaign is having an impact too.
I’m not saying the race is transformed. The margins are small: this is still a race on a knife-edge. A Harris 1-point lead would mean a Trump Electoral College win. And there are still 49 days to go. But right now the momentum is with Harris.
Statistic of the week
67 million people watched the ABC debate. Yes, these things matter.
Economic news of the week
Real incomes rose for the first time since the pandemic, a 4% rise since 2022. That only puts real incomes back to 2019 levels, so there is not too much to get excited about, but the news will come as welcome to the Harris campaign who are angling for a ‘feel-good’ factor on the economy as the election nears.
Inflation also checked in at its lowest in three years at 2.5%. There will be more good news to come from the Federal Reserve this week - more on that later.
Quote of the week
There is only one contender - so much so that every swing voter I have spoken to in the last week mentioned it.
In Springfield, they are eating the dogs. The people that came in, they are eating the cats. They’re eating – they are eating the pets of the people that live there.
Endorsement of the week
Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president. Does it matter? Perhaps not now (it was barely mentioned in our polling on why people had changed their mind in the last week), but if Swift is vocal in the run-up to Election Day then it could certainly help her young fanbase get to the polls.
Photo of the week
Retreat of the week
The Biden administration delayed their decision on Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel. There were murmurs last week Biden could block it, but US Steel’s threats of closing plants in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania may have persuaded Biden to hold off until after the election. That removes what could have been a potential flashpoint issue.
There is still one uncomfortable industry development set to take place though: the dockworkers strike. It is still scheduled for October 1st and could unleash havoc.
Anything else?
The small matter of a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump’s life at his Palm Beach golf course on Sunday. It was another of those heart-stopping moments in this campaign when the news first filtered through via unclear push notifications and texts from friends - what had happened? Was he alive? He was thankfully safe and the suspect has been apprehended.
Without having footage on camera like we did in Butler, I think the political effect of this is already fading. What is more alarming is the creeping sense that this might become the norm.
Looking ahead
The big one this week is the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. A cut is happening, though the size of it is up for debate. Watch Trump’s response, which will no doubt be furious - he thinks a cut will give Harris some economic headwind going into the election (he might be right).
There is another development this week too: Speaker Mike Johnson bringing a vote on a funding plan ahead of the September 30 shutdown deadline. It is early days in the process, as his plan is likely to be defeated tomorrow. That is partly because of the SAVE Act that he has attached to the bill to stop non-citizens from voting, partly because conservatives do not want an extension all the way to March (they want to cut spending sooner than that).
After this opening gambit, we will need to see where Johnson ends up. I suspect House Republicans are not going to be able to stomach a pre-election shutdown, and an eventual compromise with Democrats will go through before September 30.