Election Essentials, October 9th: The oil price time-bomb that could change the election
Plus: landfall, ads impact, Ozempic=Lepanto, Nevada facts, what is consuming voters' attention, jobs, lame strike, sugar prices
Welcome to the eleventh edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the days ahead.
Things that changed people’s minds this week
The ads are biting. That is what is clear in our weekly poll of voters in swing states, in which we ask whether they have changed their minds and why. There was open reference to commercials, but also responses that - based on what we know about what is on the air - are clearly informed by them.
Project 2025, which the Harris team have masterfully turned into a problem stalking Donald Trump, gets mentions, as does a fear that a Trump campaign would brutally curtail women’s rights. I met a voter in Phoenix yesterday who was totally convinced the “2025 plan” was a genuine policy platform of Trump’s campaign, despite Trump having tried to distance himself from it. Positive messaging from Harris is getting an airing too, with mentions that Harris plans to lower taxes.
But the Trump campaign is doing a good job of reminding voters of problems at the border and with inflation too. One 57-year-old woman from Michigan said she was changed her mind toward Trump because “our economy has gone down the drain”. A landscaper in North Carolina who didn’t vote in 2020 plans to vote Trump because of “our bad economy”. Never mind the positive economic news - more on this later - perceptions of the economy are still extremely poor and Trump’s ads are reminding them of the fact.
But also in the mix is something that we have heard again and again: people changing their minds because of resurfaced anxieties about Donald Trump’s temperament. Look at these quotes, just from the state of Michigan:
"Donald Trump doesn't care about the people he's out for power and money" (Female, 33, 'I am a housekeeper', Michigan, Independent, Donald Trump 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Just out of control, was better before list last election" (Male, 69, 'Retired', Michigan, Republican, Donald Trump 2020, Someone else now)
"trumps ego and with money fed his head full of idiotic crap" (Female, 39, 'Real estate', Michigan, Democrat, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"Because he only looks out for himself" (Female, 33, 'I am a housekeeper', Michigan, Independent, Donald Trump 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"He is for himself and the rich" (Male, 82, 'Retired', Michigan, Republican, Donald Trump 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"corruption and criminal charges" (Male, 48, 'Procurement', Michigan, Independent, Someone else 2020, Don't know now)
The more I read these every week I do start to wonder, do the American people really want to elect Donald Trump again?
Graph of the week
Obesity could be falling in the U.S. I’ve become faintly obsessed with this after visiting friends on a ranch in Georgia over the weekend. The ranchowner and his best friend’s wife have lost vast amounts of weight in the last year, due to Ozempic and other weight loss shots. They say they have never looked - or felt - better. A nation saddled by obesity might just have a doorway out. Is the march of Ozempic an example of technology saving an ailing empire? Is Ozempic our Lepanto?
Nevada facts of the week
Courtesy of the Wall Street Journal’s profile of where Nevada’s crucial six Electoral Votes could end up.
The proportion of nonpartisan voters in the state registered to neither party has increased from 24% to 33%.
The joblessness rate in NV is 5.5%, the highest of any state.
The state also has the highest grocery costs of any state bar California.
Only six states have a fewer proportion of voters who are college-educated and all those states are deep Republican states.
It’s a place that has stayed Democrat despite looking Republican because of its high Hispanic vote. I wrote in Conservative Home this week on why that might change.
Story of the week
Hurricane Milton is coming, but it is Hurricane Helene that is still making news. I am hearing more complaints about the Federal Government’s response in the interviews I conduct with voters. And for the first time, it is a news story that has dominated voters’ recall in our weekly poll for the second week in a row.
Economic news of the week
A jobs report that the WSJ calls “shockingly robust” is worth paying attention to. This month’s jobs report found the US added 254,000 jobs in September, way above expectations of a 150,000 increase by economists. Real incomes also continued to rise. There are some cracks - manufacturing jobs faltered.
I’m not convinced it matters too much though. As above, voters are still not feeling it, after having stomached years of inflation. Harris is not out of the woods on economic risk too either: a report last week found food inflation is on the rise globally, due to strains on sugar production in Brazil.
The next jobs report is out four days before the election, on November 1st.
Non-event of the campaign
The dockworkers strike was called off, with a mighty pay agreement reached. The agreement holds until at least Jan 15th. This one - which could have wreaked havoc on the US just in time for Thanksgiving purchases - can now be taken off of the radar.
Most important moment of the week
As tensions continue to rocket in the Middle East, the prospect of the oil price surging should not be ruled out - especially if Israel decides to strike back at Iran’s oil refineries. When Biden indicated this week the US could be comfortable with such a move, oil prices surged by 5.1%. One energy advisory firm said that there could be a 30 cent increase on the gallon to fuel prices if Israel were to hit Iran in such a fashion.
Watch this space: for all the macro statistics, higher prices at the gas station would really hurt the Harris campaign.
Look ahead
The campaigns rumble on across the swing states. But there is only one story in town this week: Hurricane Milton, which is about to hit Florida. Biden has canceled a Europe and Africa trip, and signs are that the Sunshine State could be in for a serious walloping. The political ramifications of that - in a context where voters are already sceptical of how the Biden administration responded to Helene - will really matter in the days ahead.