Election Essentials, October 2nd: Plague of the non-answers
Plus: impact of Harris ads, how Hurricane counties voted, World War Three, the debate that didn't matter, Biden's doom tour, chaos theory.
Welcome to the tenth edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the days ahead.
Things that changed people’s minds this week
Every week we ask a panel of likely voters in swing states what changed their mind. The vast majority are locked in to their vote, and it is turnout that will determine who wins. But there are still a small number in the middle - 10% or so - who are still fluctuating in their choice. Here’s what they said this week.
On the side of the ledger moving votes to Harris, people are still quoting Donald Trump’s debate performance and his general divisiveness. Harris’ ads are biting too: concerns about abortion, social security and Project 2025 featured too. Concerns about Trump’s conduct on January 6th have not gone away either. Expect more negative headlines to be generated on that: Jack Smith’s indictment evidence packet was unsealed today. Among the points included are that when told Vice President Mike Pence had to be rushed to safety, Trump replied “so what?”.
Republicans around the country will be praying Trump takes on the advice of this Independent voter who filled out our survey:
"He just needs to act more professional, stay off Twitter, don't cut other people down in public" (Female, 58, 'Real estate', Wisconsin, Independent, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump now)
But the biggest thing changing minds this week has been in the direction of Donald Trump; namely concerns that Harris does not answer questions and therefore has a lack of policy positions. When Harris first announced her candidacy, she was able to ride off positive vibes. Voters gave her the benefit of the doubt: give her time, and she would reveal her positions. Now, two months in, voters want the detail – and they are finding it lacking.
The irony is that Harris does have plenty of detailed plans, especially on the economy. She was also out with a new border policy this week, tightening up the criteria for border restrictions under which restrictions be lifted. But because of the way she handles interviews, and a lack of scrutiny overall, voters do not feel that way. In her MSNBC interview last week she dodged questions on tariffs and the State and Local Tax Deduction. Separately, in a week when five people were executed by capital punishment states, she dodged whether she backed the death penalty. I don’t think Harris can sustain this over the next few weeks, and she will need to change tack.
Here are some quotes.
"I haven't made a decision. Am concerned about Harris not being able to articulate any policy" (Female, 70, 'Tax preparer', Wisconsin, Independent, Joe Biden 2020, Dont know now)
“He can handle himself in difficult situations where Harris waits for someone to tell her how to answer." (Female, 63, 'Office Manager', Pennsylvania, Democrat, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump now)
"Her rhetoric is good but short on specific" (Male, 62, 'Retired', Georgia, Independent, Did not vote 2020, Kamala Harris now)
"not willing to state policies, do interviews and changing what she says she believes" (Female, 70, 'Tax preparer', Wisconsin, Independent, Joe Biden 2020, Dont know now)
Theme of the week
Chaos. That’s the line Republicans are going for anyway, trying to paint “the Harris administration” (Vance used this line multiple times at the debate) as being in disarray on three key issues: the dockworkers strike that is now underway, the fallout from Hurricane Helene, and Iran’s strikes on Israel.
We will see if this attack lands, but it certainly is not a feel-good week for the Federal Government. It is foreign policy that is biting the most: in every one of my swing voter interviews in Nevada this week, concerns about Biden/Harris presiding over “World War Three” dominated. For all the faults they see in him, swing voters view Trump as stronger on foreign policy and the refrain that no wars happened on his watch continues to feature. With October 7 looming, the issue is not going away, and could also fracture the younger coalition Harris has rebuilt who had abandoned Biden over Gaza.
Map of the week
On the topic of the hurricane, this map shows the counties – and the swathes of rural areas that lean Republican – that were in the hurricane’s path. The worst affected area was in North Carolina. In those areas, 92% of the counties were won by the Republicans versus 8% by the Democrats, and Republicans have a 34-point margin over Democrats in total votes.
Overstated moment of the week
The vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz. It was a good night for Trump’s running mate: our J.L. Partners post-debate poll with the Daily Mail found Vance leading by 50% to 43%. But in the same survey, we also found that the event did not budge voting intention.
Favorability of both candidates went up, and I would expect a boost to Vance’s personal ratings, but I don’t see this having a wider impact. Not even an undecided Pennsylvanian I know, who was waiting for the debate to make up her mind, was swayed.
Statistic of the week
Investors expect an average 7.9% return on their investments over the next ten years. That’s the highest ever.
Pennsylvanian facts of the week
Some Pennsylvania facts for you courtesy of the Wall Street Journal:
One-fifth of the state’s population are in the Democratic strongholds of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
Party registration is at 44% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, suggest the state has turned more red since 2020. In 2011 it was 38%-48%.
Just over 23% of the state’s population is in rural areas. That is higher than any state with as many Electoral Votes as PA has.
Insane idea of the week
Joe Biden is still talking about a potential October ‘farewell tour’ to tout his achievements. Karl Rove points about the absurdity of the idea here, which would involve pro-administration messaging that Harris is trying to distance herself from, and be tin-eared to voters feeling economic pain. It won’t really happen… right?
Look ahead
The anniversary of October 7th will dominate the news this coming weekend, and expect both candidates to attend commemorative events. The dockworkers’ strike won’t start to have an impact yet but let’s see if negotiations succeed in calling it off. Our candidates will be campaigning in the swing states, including Georgia. I’ll be going there myself. To attend a Charli XCX concert.