Election Essentials - May 27th: the chart that could explain the election
In this week's Election Essentials: the long tail of inflation, chronic student absence, fundraising stats, Haley, omnicauses, Hunter Biden, and the trial verdict
Welcome to the first edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be writing on a weekly basis rounding up some of the most interesting moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Poll of the week
The Federal Reserve put out a survey that shows the effects of inflation are not going away soon. Around seven in ten (72%) of households said they were at least doing okay financially in their latest survey, down from 73% in 2022 and 78% in 2021. In other words - people’s financial experience is worsening, not improving. The number is the same as it was at the height of the pandemic in April 2020. It is another survey indicating that - however well the American economy might be doing - inflation has one long tail.
Graph of the week
In explaining the economic poll finding, nothing can beat this analysis of real household income growth under Donald Trump and Joe Biden reported in the WSJ. If the economy is the central issue to American voters (it might not be, but more on that another time), then that stuttering blue line on the right-hand side - household net worth under Joe Biden once adjusted for inflation - could tell us a lot about the outcome in November.
Stat of the week
Not directly election-related but this one took me aback: 60% of Washington DC high school kids were chronically absent from school in the 2022-23 academic year. 60%. Source: the D.C. Policy Center.
Underrated political moment of the week
Trump beat Biden in monthly fundraising for the first time last month. The numbers, reported by Bloomberg this week, show Trump hauled in $76 million to Biden’s $51 million. That’s notable because it is the first time it has happened. Biden still retains the overall lead on fundraising, but it puts paid to some of the speculation that Trump could end the cycle heavily outspent.
Overrated political moment of the week
Nikki Haley said she would vote for Donald Trump at an event this week. Don’t get too excited: unless she actively campaigns for him, this won’t be enough to change the game and mobilize the few holdouts on the moderate wing of the Republican Party.
Word of the week
Omnicause, used by the Wall Street Journal to describe campus protests. “The far-left zealotry of protesters who romanticize armed resistance and see everything from Palestinian liberation to climate change as part of an urgent “omnicause.”
International poll of the week
Two thirds of Israeli Jews say they have seen few or no images of damage in Gaza on TV/social media, according to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute.
Something you might not have noticed
Hunter Biden’s trial on tax charges was delayed from June to September. I’m sceptical of the impact it will have, but it does increase the chance of it hanging over the election. His gun charges case gets started on June 3.
Look ahead
Only one game in town this week and that is the likely verdict in Trump’s NYC trial. If he is convicted it will be historic - even if all indications are that it might not be politically significant. Strap yourselves in.
