Election Essentials - August 4th: what Kamala Harris and the King have in common
In this week's Election Essentials: changing enthusiasm, Kamala and the King, the Fed's September Surprise, Kemp, the debates, the IRA invading Canada, the Middle East on the brink, and VP pick week
Welcome to the second edition of Election Essentials which I will now be publishing weekly as we enter the last 90 days of this election campaign. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Poll of the week
A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds that Kamala Harris is closing the enthusiasm gap on Donald Trump. For months now Republican voters have been the most enthusiastic about their candidate. That still applies, with Trump leading by 3 points on this metric, but Harris is gaining on him - and it is worth noting that Trump led on this in polls going into November 2020.
Here’s the summary from the Washington Examiner:
The poll, conducted from July 30-Aug. 2, found 85% of Democratic registered voters told pollsters they will “definitely vote,” compared to 81% who said the same in an earlier survey published on July 18. Among their Republican counterparts, 88% told pollsters they will “definitely vote,” in contrast to 90% who said the same on July 18. In addition, 74% of black registered voters told pollsters last week they will “definitely vote” when 58% said the same last month, a 16-point improvement.
Graph of the week
It’s another poll, but it explains so much about the changed narrative in American politics. This is from the regular WSJ poll tracker and shows Harris’ near-vertical jump in approval since she was named the nominee, from 35% to 46%. That puts her close to Trump’s numbers.
It reminded me of another graph: this one from YouGov showing the approval rating boom for Charles III upon becoming King. Taking the throne, whether from the late Queen or from Joe Biden, really can change one’s fortunes.
Stat of the week
Economic data released this week found unemployment at its highest level in three years, at 4.3%. That is significant in the context of the election for a number of reasons. It could indicate a slow-down in the economy, and the data prompted a significant sell-off of stocks with some analysts predicting recession. It also piles more pressure on Jerome Powell and the Fed to cut interest rates in September.
That’s crucial because it has huge political effects so close to an election. Trump has even explicitly warned Powell against it. With a rate cut now all but guaranteed, the question will come down to how big the rate cut is, either half or a quarter of a percentage point. If economic data goes in the wrong direction, the Fed might reach for a half-point cut. That would be a dramatic steroid boost for the economy, which might boost Harris but could also prove the men in suits are worried about a recession. And it would drive Trump to politically attack the Federal Reserve in a way he has not before.
Back to the statistic and some caution on chances of an economic meltdown: much of the change is due to more people participating in the workforce. Adjusting for that, the number would be 4.1%, the same as last month. And the U.S. economy grew more than anyone expected last month.
Underrated political moment of the week
Trump ripped into Republican Governor Brian Kemp at a rally in Atlanta on the weekend. Kemp and Trump have bad history after the Governor refused to revisit the ballots cast in his state; the votes had shown Joe Biden had won Georgia. Trump said to an audience, in a tone of genuine venom: “He’s a bad guy, he’s a disloyal guy and he’s a very average governor… Little Brian Kemp”.
I think this has the potential to be more damaging than Trump’s comments at the National Association of Black Journalists this week. Kemp has an approval rating of 68% and is one of the most popular governors in the country. He beat his Trump-backed primary opponent by 50 points in 2022. And he went onto beat black Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia by 300,000 votes. Trump needs Kemp’s database and campaign assistance to improve his ground game in the state, but Trump needs Kemp voters too. If Trump keeps reminding voters, even those positively predisposed towards him, of the worst sides of Trump then they may stay away in November.
Overrated political moment of the week
Trump and Harris sparring over debate timings. As it stands Trump wants a debate on FOX News on September 4th. Harris wants to stick to the ABC debate on September 10th. Both sides are calling the other scared of debating. I doubt it will make much difference: the candidates will almost certainly end up debating, and no one is going to think Trump - the man who stood covered in blood with his fist aloft after being shot in the face - is a scaredy-cat.
Word of the week
“Weird”, a word used by potential VP pick Tim Walz to describe Trump and Vance.
I’m with Karl Rove on its efficacy:
Calling Mr. Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, “weird” won’t work. The attack’s substance—for example, Mr. Vance’s strange remarks about childless women—will hurt. But calling them “weird” likely won’t be enough to sway swing voters. To them, all politicians are weird.
American historical fact of the week
I spent this week in Erie, Pennsylvania talking to swing voters. Across the lake is the Canadian border. Now here’s a fact I did not know: in an attempt to pressure Britain to the negotiating table over Ireland, the IRA tried to invade Canada from American soil in 1866. Feast on the Wikipedia page here.
Something you might not have noticed
The ANSWER Coalition, a leading pro-Palestine group that is organising protests at the DNC later this month, told Newsweek that Kamala Harris was complicit in “war crimes”. A big question for this campaign is whether Harris can shrug off the attacks of younger voters that Biden faced over Israel. Whether other organisations follow suit, and how Harris responds to tensions in the Middle East, will determine whether the youth vote comes back to the Democrats with Kamala at the top of the ticket.
Look ahead
It’s running mate week. Harris will announce her running mate in the next 48 hours and then commence a nationwide tour with her pick. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz were interviewed this weekend, but other conversations are happening too. This pick really could be important and the favorite, Shapiro, could give Harris a genuine boost in the critical state of Pennsylvania.
Another event that could dominate the week: military action in the Middle East. Israel, Iran and Lebanon are all potentially on the brink. How that develops and Kamala Harris’ response could end up mattering a lot more than the Vice President’s nationwide tour. It could even derail it.