Election Essentials - August 11th: The Georgia election rule that could change everything
And: New York Times polling, North Carolina in play, economy bounce-back, Israel-Gaza developments for Harris, crowd sizes, debates, and border crossings
Welcome to the third edition of Election Essentials. I’ll be sharing the moments and patterns I’ve seen out there, as well as looking to the week ahead.
Poll of the week
Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find, exclaimed the New York Times on Saturday. The polls find Harris leading by 50% to 46% in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But there’s a dispute afoot.
Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio weighed in with a campaign-funded memo saying that the poll was understating Trump due to the make-up of its sample. His argument comes down to 2020 voters, basically the spread of voters based on their 2020 preferences that end up in the sample of a poll.
It’s a tricky one: there is no doubt that is good news for Harris and shows a change in the race — Trump was leading in the three states in the series before Biden dropped out. But Fabrizio is right to cast a critical eye too. The recalled Biden 2020 lead in the Michigan poll is +7 (actual result in 2020 +3), Pennsylvania +5 (actual result +1), Wisconsin +9 (actual result +1). That is quite a gap and clearly skews the polls to Harris.
The best counter-argument on quota-ing strictly on 2020 vote (so sampling until you get the ‘correct’ proportion) is that the composition of the 2024 electorate has no guarantees to be the same as then. If Democrats are more enthused then it could change. But indications are that enthusiasm between the two candidates is similar. And if your assumption is that your sample should go where your poll naturally points to, then you need to include many more non-voters than are included here. Let’s also not forget how poor (and pro-Democrat) state-level poll results were in 2016 and 2020.
None of that is to say the New York Times is wrong. Another poll that just landed, by YouGov, puts North Carolina as a toss-up. But we should not pretend this is a election in which Harris is the clear favorite. In my view we have gone from a Trump-favorite race to one with no favorite at all.
Our own national J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com poll lands this week. Keep an eye on Rob Crilly to be the first to it.
Graphs of the week
The markets have bounced back from their sudden fall. The episode does of course to point to something real, shining a light on the volatility and a lack of economic confidence overall. But chances of a recession are significantly less likely than they looked. There were also better joblessness claims figures last week, and - most important to voters - mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in a year.
Underrated political moment of the week
Two this week.
The Georgia State Board in charge of elections have made a potentially far-reaching decision, allowing county board officials to hold “reasonable inquiry” into ballots before they are certified. The move has been pushed by three pro-Trump officials recently appointed to the body. Though it does not stop media outlets calling the outcomes, it ramps up the chances - in the event of a close and contested Electoral College outcome - of a delay to certification and a potential constitutional crisis. There’s a good explainer here.
The head of the ‘uncommitted’ movement that tried to primary-challenge Joe Biden over his support for Israel met Harris backstage at a rally this week. They came away saying they felt “openness and sympathy” from the VP. That is really notable: how the Israel issue falls for Harris could make all the difference with young people’s support and turnout. Even more significant is the fact Harris arranged to meet them, even if it was brief. We all saw Kamala Harris pick Tim Walz, the Governor of Minnesota, as her running mate. His appointment has opened the ticket up to accusations of being too liberal, but it may have shut down attacks that Josh Shapiro may have invited over support for Israel. If Harris can keep the delicate position she has right now, she will address a blinding problem Biden had with his candidacy.
Overrated political moment of the week
There has been a lot of crowd size discourse this week as Twitter types have spread conspiracy theories and traded insults on the turnout at Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s rallies. A lot of this is plainly Trump’s personal obsession with the issue. Is it a genuine measure of enthusiasm? It is notable that Harris has got more people excited than Biden was able to, but that’s not saying much. Comparisons with Hillary Clinton in 2016 do not seem that different, and in 2020 there was a global pandemic. Move along.
Date for your diary
September 10th, Harris and Trump will debate on ABC News. There may be more (Trump wants September 4th on FOX and September 25th on NBC) but so far that is the only one Harris has agreed to.
Stat of the week
There were 57,000 border crossings in June, down from 250,000 in December 2023. Border crossings have reduced significantly, both due to Biden’s executive order and better Mexican enforcement. That is a huge boon for Kamala Harris, who wants the issue to be as little talked about as possible ahead of November 5th.
Look ahead
Next week sees the build-up to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and we will see both candidates on the road again. Keep an eye on the Middle East too - not just for potential Hezbollah/Iran action, but on August 15th there might be what the Biden administration is pushing hard as a make or break summit on a potential ceasefire deal. Hamas initially turned it down, then said on Saturday they were “studying” it. But national security experts say both sides remain far apart.