Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump?

We need more data to know her chances. But my early view is that she could surprise on the upside, even if it is still Advantage Trump.

At the end of a truly dramatic week in American politics - I think the most exceptional since 9/11 - we have a new race on our hands. Gone is the rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, enter Kamala Harris.

She is the overwhelming favorite to be the next Democratic nominee. But can she win?

Many of the public polls are damning for the vice president. Our own polling at J.L. Partners, shared by the Trump Vance campaign this morning, shows the current VP down 11 points against Trump. Harris clearly has serious liabilities - the border, her own unpopularity, her central role in the administration - that still mean Trump is the favorite.

But the hypothetical polling was just that: hypothetical, and it came out before the race shifted. Compared to Biden, who voters had decisively given up on, she blows the race open and makes it more unpredictable than it was.

The new battle for the White House

Here are five short reasons she could perform on the up-side.

1. She is relatively unknown.

   A poll from the weekend by ABC News/Ipsos found that 18% of Americans have no opinion about or don’t know what they think of Kamala Harris. That is compared to just 9% for Trump. This can work both ways: she can be defined, but she also has an opportunity to define herself. Her net rating is -11, the same as Trump’s, while Biden was at -23. This sense of a relative lack of knowledge comes through when I talk to regular Americans too: voters I spoke to in Atlanta after the debate said people don’t like her, but they do not really know why - and are eager to make up their own minds on Harris.

2. She has less Israel-Gaza baggage.

   The Israel-Gaza war has been dire for Joe Biden’s popularity with younger voters. In the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners tracking poll, support for Biden has dropped by 18 points since October 7. In the interviews I have conducted, people put the blame for that firmly at Joe Biden’s door. Not one person I’ve spoken to on the issue has mentioned Kamala Harris. Maybe that changes now: she was, after all, Vice President, and on Wednesday she will need to sit behind Benjamin Netanyahu as he addresses both Houses of Congress, in full view of the cameras. One viral shot of her clapping along might close the door. But unlike Joe Biden, she has the opportunity to reopen the conversation with younger voters who have turned away from the Democrats.

3. She could galvanize black voters to turn out.

   Joe Biden’s strength and what carried him to the nomination in South Carolina in 2020 was his ability to connect and turn out black voters. But since his presidency, his connect with black voters has frayed. With Kamala Harris as the first major party candidate to be a black woman, it is possible she can energize black voters to turn out at the polls in November.

   None of this is a given. A black woman in Stacey Abrams, running to be Georgia governor in 2022, did not mobilize black voters. To properly connect with them Harris will need to take a long look at why black voters are turning away from the Democrats. That involves distancing the ticket from more extreme and socially liberal positions, particularly amongst black men. But there do remain serious concerns about Trump amongst black voters and Harris has a chance at connecting with them.

4. Her personality could appeal.

   Harris’ set-piece speeches are objectively quite dreadful. I saw her speak at the Munich Security Conference in 2022 and it was a notably poor experience. But there is no doubt she has some charisma, especially in interviews. She was quite masterly in her VP debate against Mike Pence in 2020, dismissing him without falling into the trap of looking like she was laughing at voters as Hillary Clinton did. In an age where voters want someone who says what she means rather than act like a traditional politician, her undoubtedly quirky personality could resonate. The memes are off the scale on social media and resoundingly positive for Harris. Charli XCX certainly thinks so: the pop star and definer of this year’s ‘brat summer’ tweeted yesterday that “kamala IS brat”.

   

5. She could convincingly put the scrutiny spotlight back onto Trump.

   This race so far has been defined by age. Pose the choice between Biden and Trump to swing voters and it was the first thing they would point out. There was a desperation too for a new candidate, someone from a fresher generation. Though that perception may now move on, it is possible that it lingers as the lens that people view the contest. In that event, Harris could try and inhabit the place of the figure of change. It is easier said than done. However old he might be, it is hard to doubt Trump’s strength after that image of him holding his fist aloft after being shot at his rally. Trump has weaknesses, though. The reason Trump won the debate was not because of a good performance from Trump, but because of such a negative reaction to Biden. Harris puts the magnifying glass back onto Trump, his temperament, and his fitness to govern.

This is a not a man that voters feel is infirm and elderly. But there are still concerns out there about Trump’s temperament.

All of these potential positives come heavily caveated. We need more data: if the polls are giving Trump big leads over Harris even after her formal nomination, then perhaps Trump really is untouchable. Even so, do not get me wrong: Trump is still the favourite. But this race is now less clear-cut, more unpredictable.

Before this tumultuous week, I had Trump at a 75% chance of victory. I’d now put it at 60%.

But that remaining 40% gives a lot to play with. It is over to Kamala Harris to see if she can do so.