Can Joe Biden still beat Donald Trump?
As Biden recovers from Covid and spends the weekend reflecting on his candidacy, the answer based on the data available is: no.
Joe Biden was diagnosed with Covid-19 on Wednesday, continuing what has so far been one of the most eventful news weeks in recent American history.
A lot has happened this week. I’ve been at the RNC, which I will write about separately. But the biggest game-changer by far would be a Biden withdrawal from the race.
CNN reports that the president is becoming more “reflective” about his candidacy. As he spends the weekend at home recovering from Covid, senior Democrats say he is likely to be mulling over whether to stay in the race or not. He could yet stay in, but it sounds like we are due a decision moment early next week.
While Biden reflects, I thought it would be useful to reflect on how the polling now looks.
The state of the polls
The polling average has gone from a 3-point Biden lead at the start of 2023 to a 4-point Trump lead today.
Forecasts, which run thousands of simulations based on the available data, are brutal reading for Biden. The Economist’s forecast gives Trump a 77% chance of winning. Nate Silver puts Trump at a 70%+ chance since the debate. Our latest J.L. Partners / Daily Mail poll has Trump climbing to a six-point lead over Biden, his highest ever since our tracking began.
Exactly four years ago in 2020, Biden was beating Trump by 10 points at this stage in the race. Republicans historically trail Democrats in national polling – that it is possibly close in July is a flashing red warning sign for Democrats.
And Biden needs more than a draw to win. Because of the more efficient spread of the Republican vote, Trump can win the Electoral College while behind on vote share, just as he did in 2016.
There’s a reason that Congressional Democrats and Senators have broken rank and are outright calling for Biden to step aside --- and party heavyweights like Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, Clooney (with Obama’s knowledge) are now open to putting Joe out to pasture.
The American public have decided the president is not fit to govern.
That means that Biden is not only likely to lose, but could sink his party in Congress – and that is a loss that could carry political reverberations for years.
Moderate Democrats are now vulnerable
Nothing puts this into sharper emphasis than the non-partisan analyst The Cook Political Report which shifted six key states last week towards the GOP.
The organization moved three key toss-up states, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, from being too close to call to ‘Lean Republican’. If Trump wins those three states, he is just one state away from the White House.
Those extra votes could come from unlikely places: the Report also moved Minnesota, New Hampshire, and one of Nebraska’s electoral votes from ‘Likely Democratic’ to ‘Lean Democratic’, meaning they are less safe for Biden than previously assumed.
Some of those congressional Democrats who have called for Biden to go might be feeling the same heat. Angie Craig of Minnesota District 2, who said last weekend that she “does not believe that the President can effectively campaign and win against Donald Trump” is defending a traditionally Republican seat that she won by just 5 points in 2022.
Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey will also have the voters in mind. Though she won by double digits in 2022, Republicans have become more competitive in the district. Her margin relies on the one-third of voters in the district that are unaffiliated voters in the middle, many of whom are dismayed at Biden’s performance.
Biden’s travails have made Senate races more competitive for Republicans too. In the spring, many had written off Kari Lake’s Senate campaign in Arizona. But it now has a new lease of life, with the last two polls showing Lake ahead of Ruben Gallego.
Some surveys have even earmarked New Mexico as a potential Senate pick-up, with the Republican candidate within the margin of error of a win. That would be a moment for a deep blue state that has not elected a Republican Senator since 2002.
States once solidly in the blue column are now competitive
The swing state polls make bleaker reading still for Democrats.
If Trump wants to win the presidency he needs to pick up some Rust Belt states, just as he did eight years ago.
Before the debate this was where he struggled more in the polls. But a post-debate survey showed Wisconsin, typically considered one of the better swing states for Biden, opting for Trump by a margin of six points.
Trump is leading in Arizona by seven points according to Morning Consult. Emerson College polls showed Trump leads in both Michigan and Georgia, as well as a 5-point lead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania.
Most central estimates based on current polling now have Trump getting 331 electoral votes. That would be a larger win than his 2016 margin.
Key voting groups have moved away from Biden
Behind these dire numbers is a revolutionary change of opinion amongst the groups that hold the keys to the White House.
Our latest J.L. Partners polling of likely voters nationwide shines a light on these movements:
A year ago Biden held a 4 point lead with Independents, ahead by 42% to 38%. Now it is Trump in the lead, by a margin of 12 points, 48% to 36%.
Before the debate, Biden had a 3-point lead with Hispanic voters – people who could make all the difference in states like Arizona and Nevada. Trump now leads by 11 points, crushing Biden by 50% to 39%.
Much attention is given to women voters. But Biden’s biggest problem is men. A year ago Trump held a 9-point lead with men, similar to the 8-point margin he won them by in 2020. He now leads by a stunning 22 points, by 57% to Biden’s 35%.
Late working age voters between the age of 50 and 64 have swung dramatically to Trump too. This group makes up three in ten of the voting population. Trump led by 6 points with them last year, now he is ahead by 20 points, 57% to Biden’s 37%.
These are huge shifts, almost unprecedented in the polarized and gridlocked state of American public opinion.
It does not end there. Fully half of Black voters want Biden to leave the race. 56% of Hispanics say the same. For Independents that number is 60%.
All three voter groups carried Biden to the White House in 2020. Not only does that no longer apply – they actively want him to get out of the race. The Democrat cushion Biden used to enjoy has become a bed of nails.
Democrat base is splintering, Republicans are united
All this is taking place while the Democrat base itself is splintering. While nine in ten Republicans are sticking with Trump, just 86% of Democrats are doing the same for Biden. That might seem like a small number but that could make all the difference come November.
Younger voters have been going off Biden for some time, with his Gaza response fraying their trust in the president. This time last year Biden had the support of 51% of 18-29 year olds; it has trended down to 45%. Though not moving direct to Trump, younger voters are turning from Biden to apathy: 16% are now saying they would not vote, a sharp increase from just 6% last year.
While Democrats fret about Biden’s age, Trump supporters are steadfast: only 1% of those intending to vote for Trump say they are very unlikely to back Trump if he is imprisoned for his NY crimes.
And since the failed assassination attempt on Trump’s life, that unity is even stronger.
The debate was the key moment though. Two-thirds of Democrats now say Biden should exit the race.
Based on this, I do not believe the argument made by Dave Portnoy that Democrats will vote for a head of lettuce over Trump. Biden’s increasingly vegetable status means his base is having other ideas, and with left-wing candidates such as Jill Stein and Cornel West on the ballot, his core vote is set to fray.
Voters have decided Joe Biden is no longer fit to govern
What is at the heart of all this? Simply put, Americans have decided Biden can no longer govern.
Take this conversation I had with Teo, a middle-aged swing voter from Atlanta, Georgia.
I was sad for him. He basically looks dumb, physically and mentally… His strength was not there. He was not speaking with passion or anything. He was just struggling.
I don't have too much choice. I cannot vote for him based on what I'm seeing. I don't think he can win. I will be surprised if he makes it even to the elections. But let's say he does, I don't know. I, I, I feel like I'll be irresponsible if I vote for him, basically.
Because it feels like dementia, and just voting for a person with dementia to be the leader of, uh, America is like, I don't see it.
The numbers show Teo is not alone. In early 2021, 53% of the public thought Biden was mentally sharp – higher than the proportion of people who said the same of Trump.
That number has now halved to 24%, with Trump more than thirty points ahead of Biden on 58%.
A good press conference here, or a better interview there, will not change views now. The debate caused a sea change in views of Joe Biden for voters in the middle, and confirmed the worst fears of many more. Opinion is not changing back.
The data, the polling, the voters, the forecasts, are all pointing in one direction: the Joe Biden of 2024 cannot win the presidency.
We will soon find out if Joe Biden agrees.